Voting for vacuum

 

Shortly after the eighth postponement of the parliamentary session to elect a president on Tuesday, and a few hours before the assassination of the Lebanese army’s chief of operations, Brigadier General François al-Hajj, March 14 leaders once again hinted at the possibility of resorting to a 50-plus-one vote to elect a new president.

 

For more than two weeks now, Lebanon has been hanging in a presidential void, which much of the opposition seems all too willing to see extended even further. Rather than agree on a consensus candidate, they are demanding that a comprehensive political settlement regarding the composition and leadership of the next government precede presidential elections – or even constitutional amendment. But the clock is ticking: If a president is not elected before parliament’s fall ordinary session closes at year’s end, it will likely be at least March before elections are actually held. So while March 14 would prefer to elect a consensus candidate, the simple majority option has not been ruled out entirely.

 

If the goal were really just to elect a neutral consensus president, Army Commander General Michel Sleiman would probably everyone’s best bet. However, it seems that for the time being, the opposition – and its Syrian patrons – seem to want neither consensus nor a president.

 

Wednesday’s tragic assassination makes the election of a president next week all the more unlikely, meaning that those obstructing the elections will have achieved one of their primary goals: a prolonged vacuum. But while the opposition can clearly be seen as embracing the vacuum, its reasons for doing so are often less obvious, especially since the alternative – General Sleiman – is a candidate who they themselves claim to, at least conditionally, support. So, why is the opposition pro-vacuum?

 

“By prolonging the vacuum, the opposition either wants to maintain it, or push March 14 to adopt the 50-percent-plus-one option, which could lead to chaos,” Mohammad Choucair, a columnist at Al-Hayat daily, told NOW Lebanon.  “The opposition’s recent statements, which contradict their earlier ones, show clearly that the presidency is linked with the government and is being used as blackmail to pressure March 14 for consensus on other thorny and significant issues,” he added.

 

 

The next electoral session has been postponed to Monday, December 17, but it seems increasingly likely that if a president is not chosen on that date, the vacuum may persist until March 2008. MP Mustapha Allouch, of the Future bloc, explained to An-Nahar that “between January 1 and March, parliament cannot amend the constitution unless an emergency session is held, but a request must be made by the president of the republic.”

“Since there is no president,” he continued, “and since the government is not recognized by the opposition and the speaker, there won”t be an emergency session, and we will have to wait until March when the ordinary session begins.”

 

The March 14 coalition realizes that a prolonged vacuum might lead to the further destabilization of the country, and is therefore more serious about reaching a consensus to overcome the vacuum. So far, the majority has dropped demand after demand in its efforts to find a solution. But this strategy may have backfired, as the opposition is using March 14’s preference for consensus over a void to push the majority into a corner, where it believes it the majority will be forced to yield to the demands that it has been unable to achieve since 2005.

 

However, the opposition’s demands are not just a goal – they are also a strategy. By insisting on conditions they know the majority can never accept, the opposition will be able to keep the void wide open for as long as they please.

 

 

The primary reason why the opposition favors vacuum at present is not because the void serves its own interests (although it does), but rather because it serves those of Syria. Speaking to NOW Lebanon, Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh explained how the vacuum is in the best interests of the Syrian regime, which wants neither a successful International Tribunal, nor stability in Lebanon. “Electing a president means stability in Lebanon, but they still prefer to use Lebanon as a bargaining chip. By targeting the army, they are targeting Sleiman, the consensus candidate and the only unifying and stabilizing force,” he said.

 

Hamadeh added that the opposition and Syria have been targeting constitutional and military institutions, a strategy aimed at depleting all presidential, governmental, parliamentary, and now, military institutions in Lebanon. “Listening to Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa’s statement, one can be certain that Syria still wants to control Lebanon,” he said, referring to Sharaa’s proclamation on Tuesday that Damascus’ allies in Lebanon are becoming much stronger, and that no one is capable of defeating Syria in Lebanon.

 

According to Choucair, the Syrian approach to the Lebanese crisis has not yet come to full fruition. But Syria seems to be betting that, by prolonging the vacuum, it will be able to win support for a return to its previous position of power in Lebanon – and foment the unstable situation that could be used to rationalize such intervention. Although a Syrian military presence would likely be impossible today, Damascus is counting on regaining its political sway in the country, and the first step is imposing its own president, on its own conditions – and at the time of its choosing. By closing the vacuum just before the March Arab League summit, Syria hopes to win points with its estranged Arab neighbors.

Local interests

 

Free Patriotic Movement leader General Aoun also stands to benefit from the vacuum. Although Hezbollah has said that Aoun is its preferred candidate for the presidency, it is clear that both sides are merely using the other to advance their own goals. The longer the presidency remains vacant, the more momentum Aoun’s candidacy stands to gain. And with Aoun exploiting the Christian community’s fears to increase his popular support, Hezbollah is still able to use him as cover.

 

For its part, Hezbollah cannot afford to genuinely compromise right now either: In the post-presidential election period, its arms, along with international resolutions that threaten them, will likely top the agenda. Before allowing elections to take place, Hezbollah will want to guarantee that the next ministerial statement, along with the members of the new government, protects the party and its weapons.

The opposition also has general interests in the vacuum, which they see as another opportunity to marginalize and weaken the Siniora government. March 8 is hoping that the longer the void persists, the more frustrated people will become with the government – especially if the security situation remains dicey.

 

 

By refusing to recognize the Siniora government, which has assumed the powers of the president during the void, in line with the constitution, the opposition has effectively extended the vacuum to all branches of the Lebanese government (after Berri’s refusal to convene the legislature over the past year). The opposition, backed by the Syrians, is using everything but constitutional, democratic mechanisms to get its demands met, and suggesting in the process that Lebanon’s institutions will be destroyed if they cannot control them.

 

The only thing the opposition proves with these obstructions is that it considers Lebanese interests to be less important than those of Syria and Iran in the country. As Lebanon tumbles ever deeper into the vacuum, it seems that protecting those interests comes second to nothing for much of the opposition – even if the this leads Lebanon into destabilization and chaos, as seen on Wednesday with Hajj’s assassination.

 

When it comes to the Lebanese presidency today, the vacuum appears to be the opposition’s favored candidate.

 

Picture: AFP/Jinan Nour Al-Dunia