The General’s dream – Aoun’s impossible demands to only achieve chaos
Once again, General Michel Aoun is being used by his opposition allies to obstruct progress, this time on the formation of the cabinet. Driven by his perpetual dreams of moving to Baabda, the Free Patriotic Movement leader is making impossible, not to mention unreasonable, demands over the distribution of the four sovereign portfolios – Defense, Interior, Finance and Foreign Affairs.
The general agreement after Doha was that the Defense and Interior ministries would go to President Sleiman, while the majority and opposition would each take one of the other two. Aoun, however, has been demanding one of the four sovereign ministries for his own bloc.
Hezbollah is backing Aoun’s demands, aware that the FPM leader can still provide it with a national/Christian front in the coming parliamentary elections. In fact, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah recently proposed to give Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc the Telecommunications Ministry together with the post of deputy premier as an alternative to giving the bloc a sovereign portfolio.
Although the Telecommunications Ministry is not a sovereign ministry, it is an essential one. Speaking to NOW Lebanon, Youth and Sports Minister Ahmad Fatfat explained that the ministry is both “vital to the investigations related to the International Tribunal,” since it controls access to telephone calls monitored, and because of the profit it generates. “Those who control it,” Fatfat said, “can break the state.”
What does Aoun want?
“Aoun is certainly still dreaming of the presidency, and it is not a farfetched dream for him,” said Fatfat. “He might be escalating the crisis thinking that before elections, people will vote for the one who looks stronger.
But, as Fatfat pointed out, no one today really knows what Aoun wants. “He is moving from one claim to another, and the main concern today is that he is only trying to obstruct a government formation.”
One reason behind Aoun’s obstructing demands, Fatfat suggested, is that, according to some within his inner circle, Aoun can overthrow President Sleiman constitutionally if he can obtain two-thirds of the parliament in 2009, as the constitution allows for the removal of a sitting president if it is called for by two-thirds of the government.
But according to Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh in an interview with the Voice of Lebanon radio station last weekend, the reason Aoun is making these demands is because he is “either hoping that Sleiman’s presidency will fail or is trying to achieve certain gains by pressuring some Metn leaders to submit to his agenda and electoral list later on.” Metn figures like Michel Al-Murr could be very helpful to Aoun in the 2009 parliamentary elections.
In addition to demanding cabinet positions for his own bloc, Aoun has also been contesting the appointment of some other portfolios. Hamadeh last weekend accused Aoun of undermining the presidency by challenging Sleiman’s quota in the cabinet. Aoun has recently questioned the neutrality of caretaker Minister Elias Al-Murr, Sleiman’s choice for the Defense Ministry. Aoun insisted that if Murr is to be a minister in the government, it will have to come as part of the majority’s quota.
Aoun himself, however, says that his problems are with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, not President Sleiman. The General told Al-Akhbar on Monday that the PM is a “war project, not a catalyst for dialogue and understanding.” He also urged Sleiman to name another prime minister after another round of parliamentary consultations “because Siniora has failed.”
The end-game
As for possible solutions, Fatfat pointed to As Safir’s report about a meeting that was held last Friday between opposition leaders Michel Aoun, Sleiman Franjieh, Hassan Nasrallah and Nabih Berri. According to the daily, the meeting discussed potential ways to exit the cabinet crisis and strengthen Aoun ahead of the parliamentary elections. As Safir also noted that both Hezbollah and Amal indicated that they would not reject the idea of allowing the Shia portfolio, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to be given to a Shia minister from Aoun’s bloc, as long as the majority lifts its veto from essential ministries, such as the ministries of Telecommunications and Justice.
“We have to consider As Safir’s information carefully, and we’ll see,” Fatfat said.
In the end, it appears that General Michel Aoun’s presidential fantasies are still being exploited by his so-called allies. If the opposition is willing to make compromises, they will still be to Aoun’s benefit in the cabinet formation.
Forming the cabinet is a requirement for the initiation of the national dialogue by President Sleiman, as agreed in Doha. Both March 14 and the international community expect this dialogue to stress on the issue of disarming Hezbollah, an item the opposition and their regional allies will try to avoid. Obstructing a cabinet formation, in this sense, might be beneficial by averting attention from Hezbollah’s arms. Besides, Hezbollah has recently learned that escalation and pressure will eventually turn out a victory.
Aoun’s history of making impossible demands at critical junctures in Lebanon’s political course has become more than a headache for his fellow politicians. Exactly what’s behind his obstruction of the cabinet formation is anyone’s guess, but it is clear that his goal is more power for himself, and taking the spotlight off the opposition’s weapons. What that bodes for Lebanon is unsettling.