The General’s nightmares
As the 2009 parliamentary elections loom on the horizon, it seems that every political statement or event is designed to deliver an electoral message. In this bewildering and cut-throat milieu, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader, former army commander and current MP Michel Aoun is once again trying to reinvent himself as the Christian leader, but it appears he might be running out of options.
Part of his campaign groundwork – aside from a bizarre crusade to get Deputy Prime Minister Issam Abu Jamra an office in the Grand Serail – will be to distance himself from the bloodshed unleashed in early May by his allies in Hezbollah, a task made all the more difficult by Hezbollah’s recent flirtation with the Salafists. Not only was the same term – wathiqat al-tafahum – used for the abortive memorandum of understanding with the radical Islamists, tarring Aoun with the two brushes of Islamist conservatism, but the fact that the Salafists then backed off only shows that even the so-called hard-line Sunnis had considered the implications of sectarian division, one to which Aoun appears to have given little thought.
Add to the mix the rising popularity and credibility of President Michel Sleiman among the population, the Christians in particular, and Aoun might end up not only losing his representation among Lebanese Christians, but also his standing with the pro-Syrian fractions in Lebanon, who must be asking if it is worth tweaking their own agenda to maintain Aoun’s electability.
Election vibes
Aoun is expected to visit the border villages of South Lebanon this Sunday, part of his campaign to strengthen his alliances with the non-Christian electorate. He needs to; Aoun’s biggest nightmare must be the prospect of losing seats in parliament as the Christian street is gearing up for a heavyweight election battle, especially in Kesrouan, Metn and Jbeil, where Aoun will face the lists of an increasingly popular President Sleiman. While many pundits predict that Sleiman will probably maintain his neutral position vis-à-vis the elections, in order to maintain his image as a consensus president, this eagerness to name ministers in the new government shows that he is not averse to creating his own bloc in parliament.
If this were the case and Sleiman entered the electoral fray with a “third” list (neither March 8 nor March 14) that presented itself as an alternative force for the Christians, he would probably win, such is his personal popularity, which is backed up by the authority of the office he holds. Sleiman would then be able to reinforce his position as president, this time with a substantial parliamentary bloc, which would further strengthen his hand within the Christian community.
And let us not forget, talking of Christian alliances, that Michel Murr’s withdrawal from Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc was seen by analysts as a direct result of his early support of Sleiman for the presidency. Further robust backing from Murr and the Armenian community, which has historically “given” its vote to the president, would probably lead to Aoun’s desertion.
Aoun now appears to be fighting on two fronts – the other being his battle with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to undermine Sunni authority in Lebanon – and the last thing he needs is a credible Christian contender in the shape of a president, who seems to be accepted wherever he goes, even in Damascus, and who is forging close professional and personal ties with the prime minister.
Allying with the devil
Aoun began clutching at straws after the Doha Agreement and the election of Michel Sleiman as president. Instead of recognizing and playing to the fear and anger felt by many Lebanese, especially the Christians, over the sudden and bloody takeover in early May, he did not condemn Hezbollah’s actions. In fact, he praised their Iranian patrons: “I have a message of friendship and brotherhood for Iranians, and I see them as Lebanon lovers,” he said in an interview with the Mehr News Agency in Beirut on June 1 in which he lauded Tehran for its “positive and constructive role” in helping resolve the May crisis.
What else could he do? Aoun has always expressed pride over his memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah, which he claims has saved Lebanon from Muslim-Christian strife. What he forgets is that it has actually ignited an internal Christian conflict, one that has served Hezbollah magnificently and one to which Aoun is either blind or indifferent. His argument is that his infamous MOU with Hezbollah protected the Christian street and that the Christians should back Hezbollah unconditionally lest they expose themselves to a well-drilled culture of violence. This is hardly a partnership based on trust.
To show the extent to which the MOU must be seen as a tool for personal ambition, one need only look at the similar but ultimately abortive MOU Hezbollah signed with Sheikh Hassan Chahhal’s Salafist Belief and Justice Movement last week. Sheikh Dai al-Islam al-Chahhal, the founder of the Salafist Movement in Lebanon, and other Sunni parties, including the Future Movement, urged Sheikh Hassan Chahhal to freeze the MOU to preserve Sunni unity.
Although the incident revealed a level of discord among Lebanon’s Sunnis, the fact that they chose sectarian unity over political gain, and that that even the Salafists, considered by many Lebanese to be on dark side of the fundamentalist moon, are concerned about the unity of their community, shows to what depths Aoun is prepared to stoop to advance up the political ladder.
So now Aoun, sensing the Christian street might finally ditch him, has opened up a new mini-front, this time as a defender of Greek Orthodox interests, by launching a campaign against the prime minister and demanding an office for his man inside the Serail. Issam Abu Jamra’s demands are obviously channeled to boost his boss electorally, but it is odd that Aoun, who has been obstructing state institutions for three years, is suddenly worried about the where the deputy prime minister puts his desk.
Aoun is looking increasingly like a man on the margins. It might just herald an orange sunset.