Ebbing tides
Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun is struggling to avoid a disaster in the upcoming 2009 parliamentary elections. Most of the pro-Syrian parties and politicians who backed him in the 2005 polls by giving his candidates the best representation in all constituencies appear to be less generous to the former army commander this time around, despite his recent cozying up to Iran and the rumpus his ally Issam Abu Jamra is causing over the privileges of the deputy prime minister.
It was all so different back in 2005 when the Syrian-Iranian strategy was to back and then buy Aoun, a man who has since demonstrated by his policies, alliances and agreements that he was for sale by eschewing his nationalist platform in favor of choosing the political bedfellows he felt best served his presidential aspirations.
But today, pro-Syrian Lebanese parties seem to be trying, with the blessing of Damascus, to expand their influence with the former general. The Syrian Social Nationalist Party has declared that it is looking to secure five seats in the next parliament, while it is becoming abundantly clear that the current speaker and Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri will not forego his share of seats in Shia areas for any of Aoun’s candidates. On the Christian front, Marada leader Sliemen Franjieh seems to have finalized his Zgharta list, which has no room for FPM candidate Fayez Karam, and according to the Syrian daily al-Watan the Lebanese Baath party also wants to expand its parliamentary representation. If that were not bad enough, one of Aoun’s nemeses, President Michel Sleiman, has said that that he is would like to see the formation of a neutral “national bloc” that he would support in the 2009 polls.
Aoun, who must be beginning to feel the heat, has latched onto this declaration in a desperate attempt to turn back the ebbing tide of support, launching a strong attack on calls to form a neutral parliamentary bloc loyal to President Michel Sleiman.
His argument is that “neutrality is the ugliest of all stands.” Funny, then, how Aoun’s son-in-law, FPM stalwart and Telecom Minister Gebran Bassil, responded on Sunday to Sleiman’s wishes by saying that, “The president needs our parliamentary bloc” – this despite the fact that Sleiman will never agree to play second fiddle to Aoun.
So why the mixed signals? Simply, Aoun is paying the price for abandoning the principles of the Independence Intifada, and this latest clumsy move is another attempt to consolidate what little support he has left, a situation created by his disastrous visit to Iran and the cynical campaign, launched at the expense of Deputy Prime Minister Issam Abu Jamra to sabotage the credibility of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and smear the Sunnis.
All this and the FPM’s threats not to attend cabinet meetings are hindering the government’s efforts to address crucial economic and social issues. But then again, conflict and chaos have always been Aoun’s way; more so now that his so-called friends appear to be abandoning him.