Assad”s strategic decision to turn cheek
Here in Bashar Assad”s hometown, they love their leader. Or at least they make an extremely good show of appearing to do so.
The dictator”s mustachioed face glares from the back of taxi cabs and smiles benevolently out from the windows of banks and hair salons in this laid-back coastal city, sometimes alongside the image of his father, Hafez, who ruled this country before him.
But the younger Mr. Assad”s grip on Syria has never been as firm as his father”s. Even though a tight lid is kept on dissent in this authoritarian republic, snickers can be heard about the President”s weak-looking chin (usually drawn more chiselled in the billboards than in real life) and his less-than-macho background as an orthodontist.
In other words, his countrymen wonder whether their leader can take a punch. And thus they”re looking anxiously to see what Mr. Assad will do after taking one in the kisser this week when U.S. troops and attack helicopters crossed into Syrian territory and carried out a raid that left eight people dead.
Unfortunately for Mr. Assad, the truth is that there”s not a lot he can do, at least not without jeopardizing the slow but steady progress Syria has made in recent months toward bringing itself out of the international isolation imposed by the Bush administration.
It”s not that Syria doesn”t have tools at its disposal. If it wanted, it could open the floodgates to allow even more foreign fighters into Iraq (even the U.S. State Department admits Syria is at least trying to clamp down on the number of jihadis crossing its territory) or destabilize the U.S.-friendly government in Lebanon.
But Mr. Assad in recent months appears to have made a strategic choice to come in from the cold by improving Syria”s relations with Europe, opening diplomatic relations with the new government in Beirut and even flirting with Israel via back-channel peace talks over the Golan Heights. Though the Bush administration remains ideologically opposed to reconciling with Damascus, Syria has made no secret of its hope for better ties with the next administration, particularly if it”s led by Barack Obama.
Such incomplete moves have left Damascus in awkward limbo between a cautious West and its fuming long-time ally, Iran. Analysts in both Syria and the United States say that Syria”s strategic limbo may explain why the U.S. military decided to take action now after five years of complaining about the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq via Syria.
Some suggest that political considerations in the United States may have also been a factor, as the U.S. military may have been trying to set a precedent for action in Syria before the next administration takes over.
"Syria has its hands tied behind its back. It can”t allow its anger to rule this moment," said Joshua Landis, co-director of the Centre for Peace Studies at the University of Oklahoma and editor of the syriacomment.com website. "In the past, clearly, the [U.S.] military in Iraq would have been very anxious about what Syria could do in retaliation."
Syria”s response to date has been to unleash sharp-tongued Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, who called the raid "criminal and terrorist aggression," and to close an American school and a U.S. cultural centre in Damascus, moves that primarily hurt the Syrian students who attend the former.
The U.S. embassy in Damascus said yesterday that it may be forced to close "due to unforeseen circumstances or events." There has been no U.S. ambassador in the country since the 2005 murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, a killing that Washington believes was organized in Syria.
Despite the fury printed on the pages of state-run newspapers – the Tishreen daily wailed that "this American aggression demonstrates the stupidity of the Bush administration" – most expect the tempest will now die down.
"Syria does not want an escalation," said Marwan Kabalan, a political scientist at the University of Damascus. "Syria does not want to let this raid have any impact on its relations with the European Union or other countries."
It”s not the first time in recent months that Mr. Assad has had to turn the other cheek.
He was embarrassed earlier this year when Imad Mughniyeh, the military commander of Lebanon”s Hezbollah movement, was killed by a mysterious explosion in Damascus that Syria blamed on Israel and the United States. His regime also had no response last fall when Israeli warplanes bombed a suspected nuclear site in northern Syria.
Some wonder how long Syria can remain silent in the face of the repeated violations of its sovereignty. There”s little doubt that the Assad regime would be under tremendous domestic pressure if not for the fact that most of its political opponents are currently in prison.
"The common denominator to [the U.S. raid, the Israeli strike and the Mughniyeh assassination] is that nobody takes the Syrians seriously any more, given the repeated violations of their sovereignty. It is doubtful the domestic security situation there has ever been this unstable," columnist Amos Harel wrote in Israel”s Haaretz newspaper.
For now, the back-channel talks between Syria and Israel remain alive, though frozen while Israel heads into new elections. But Mr. Assad received critical diplomatic support when France, Britain and the European Union spoke out against the U.S. raid. The Iraqi government also condemned the assault, saying its territory should not have been used for an attack against a neighbour.
Mr. Assad likely believes that he only has to outlast Mr. Bush to see his new policy course bear fruit. Few in Syria make any secret of the fact that they”re pining for Jan. 20, 2009, the day the next U.S. president will be sworn in.
"The whole world is waiting for the end of Bush”s presidency," Prof. Kabalan said. "Syria especially."