What is Assad”s Next Move?
Not a week goes by now without Syria showing up on the radar. In fact, after I analyzed the recent slew of incidents and their possible interpretations in my article last week titled "It is Clutch Time for Syria," this week brought new puzzling developments.
It all started with the U.S. raid in Syrian territory that allegedly targeted a major al-Qaida in Iraq recruiter, Abu Ghadiyah. While this happened five years too late, the timing seems odd.
Interestingly, an Arab diplomat based in Beirut told the Saudi news Web site Elaph.com that the U.S. operation was not only destined to target al-Qaida facilitators but also to send a clear warning to Damascus. Indeed, the diplomat affirmed that Washington wanted to tell Syria not to think about invading Lebanon again.
This follows several media reports which stated that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice conveyed this message verbally to Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem when they recently met. Also reportedly the French President Nicolas Sarkozy administration told Damascus the same thing.
Western nations started to worry when Syria moved 10,000 special forces to its border with northern Lebanon. Syria claimed the reason behind the move was to prevent al-Qaida-linked terrorists to enter Syrian territory and create havoc. This explanation is half-baked at best. Especially in light of what occurred this past Thursday when it was learned that Syria is also beginning to amass troops on the border with eastern Lebanon. Syria is indeed preparing its next move.
In fact, three seemingly unrelated events are telling observers that something is afoot.
First, on Oct. 29 Damascus decided to equip all schools and all administration offices with TV sets turned to the official state network. This is a sign that either Damascus is preparing an operation or expecting that it will be a target of air strikes and would like to be able to inform the population to evacuate.
Second, Syrian authorities who disarmed all civilian units of the intelligence services at the onset of the Iraq war, have now reversed this decision and are starting to distribute light weapons to their agents.
Third, Syrian troops have been removed from their posts at the Iraqi border. While this could be retaliation for the U.S. strike, it could also mean that Syria needs the troops somewhere else.
Whatever the reason behind this Syrian positioning, it seems that Syria might try to profit from the transition period in the United States between the Nov. 4 election and the Jan. 20 swearing-in of the new president. Syria might not be the only country that will play opportunistically during these 11 weeks. The odds are things are going to heat up dramatically in the Middle East once again leaving the new president with a crisis on his hands.