Aoun”s Visit, 7 May 2005 and 2008
Political circles in Lebanon should not be surprised by the visit to Damascus by the Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. They should not be surprised by Aoun”s statements in the Syrian capital, or the exceptional reception of Aoun by his long-time nemesis, the Syrian leadership, after the two ferociously fought each other at the end of the 1980s.
The rapprochement between the two sides began a few years ago, even if some doubt the stories of mediators and common friends who were trying to arrange Aoun”s return to Lebanon before 7 May 2005 (the date he actually returned) and the deal struck for his return. The similarity in positions between Aoun and Damascus on sensitive issues has been enough to dispel any doubts over the last three years. It was a Syrian-style test to see how much Damascus could rely on a friend and ally such as General Aoun. Hence, Syrian President Bashar Assad praised Aoun”s positions of principle. The Syrians usually like to test their friends and allies for a period of time before granting them any specific capacity or high-level reception.
Under the deal, Aoun was required not to forge any alliance with the Future Movement or the Hariri family in the 2005 parliamentary elections or take any negative stance on Hezbollah and its weapons, according to friends and mediators involved in arranging the deal.
Between 7 May 2005 and his visit to Damascus this week, Aoun spoke candidly about a rapprochement with Damascus, to the degree that sometimes he seemed to be getting ahead of Syria”s more loyal allies in defending Damascus and covering up its policies in Lebanon. With respect to the matter of assassinations, he did not only reject the idea of accusing Syria without evidence from the international investigation, but even accused the Lebanese political and security authorities themselves, without waiting for the results and the evidence. Among the ranks of the opposition, only General Aoun took on the task of holding the Lebanese authorities responsible for the non-implementation of National Dialogue decisions that concern Syria, such as disarming pro-Syrian Palestinian groups outside the refugee camps, controlling the weapons inside the camps, and demarcating the borders in the Shebaa Farms region. This has removed the embarrassment for Syria, which believes that its allies agreed too hastily to these decisions in March 2006, hence the maneuvering attempts to delay their implementation.
Lebanese political leaders who earlier moved in step with Syrian policy in Lebanon or were allied with Damascus (and were thus Aoun”s rivals) are aware what each statement or position by Aoun means now, as Damascus tests its local allies, particularly on sensitive issues. The game has not changed. Aoun”s visit to Damascus will only confirm the change in roles among Lebanese. Damascus has not changed; some Lebanese are the ones who have changed positions. The Syrian pressure on Aoun and others with cover from its former allies has now become pressure on these allies themselves, with cover from Aoun himself.
Since Aoun”s return from exile on 7 May 2005, we have seen a gradual move by him to nullify the results of the last parliamentary elections, which brought to power a majority of "rebels" against Syria. He has confronted the International Tribunal (for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri) by changing the make up of the country”s political authorities, all the way to the weapons used in the civil strife of 7 May 2008, to impose a Cabinet with veto power for the opposition. This policy was crowned by Aoun”s visit to Syria this week.
However, the visit heralds a new phase of Syrian movement in Lebanon, coinciding with the run-up to next year”s parliamentary elections, which Damascus hopes to manage so that it produces a majority for its supporters, in cooperation with Aoun, so that the next prime minister of Lebanon is someone who Damascus approves of. It also signals a new phase in the relationship between President Michel Suleiman, who is wagering on a relationship of equals with Assad, while the latter anoints Aoun as his "preferred horse" in Lebanon. This is designed to wring concessions from the Lebanese president vis-à-vis the promises of his inaugural address.
By Walid Choucair