Sarkozy in Lebanon
French President Nicholas Sarkozy will be coming to Lebanon at the beginning of 2009 to extend New Year”s greetings to French international forces in South Lebanon. He will also seek confirmation from President Michel Suleiman that Lebanon is recovering and that France”s policy of opening up to Syria is yielding results on the ground, in favor of sovereignty and independence.
Paris is keen to see that Sarkozy”s road map with Syria, toward recognizing Lebanon”s sovereignty and independence, is being implemented. Sarkozy has repeatedly told skeptics that if he fails and Damascus does not honor its promises, he will draw the appropriate conclusion and adjust his policy accordingly. There is great hope that the French president will succeed, for the sake of Lebanon, but the doubts are legitimate, in view of the history of relations between the two countries. This is particularly the case after the way Syria received its former enemy, General Michel Aoun, and turned him into an additional bargaining chip in its bid to return its political hegemony over Lebanon”s Christians, along with its alliance with Hezbollah.
The doubts over Sarkozy”s efforts are certainly legitimate; however, his attempt should be accepted and praised, because he wants to verify by himself whether he was right or wrong. There is hope that Sarkozy will prove to be right and others wrong, for the sake of Lebanon. This is the hope of every Lebanese who wants his nation to be independent and regain its decision-making power. Why doesn”t Lebanon, like Syria, enter into indirect negotiations with Israel? What is preventing Sarkozy from being the mediator in such an effort, as the Turks have done in the Syria-Israel track? After all, Sarkozy has strong friendships with Israeli leaders, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, who will likely become the next Israeli prime minister. Will Lebanon be forbidden from doing this, since Syria and its Lebanese allies want to prevent it? Here, the French president”s role is important and he can be a pioneer in this effort, which no one sees as reasonable, due to the considerable talk about Lebanon being weak and its president being unable to overstep Syria”s allies in order to conduct such negotiations!
The Doha Agreement in May was certainly a major accomplishment. Tourists have returned to Lebanon, the hotels are full and the restaurants are teeming with customers, which is good for Lebanon. In addition, despite the public debt and the poor economic and political situation, Lebanon”s financial situation has persevered amid the international financial crisis, thanks to the wise policies of Riad Salameh, the governor of the Central Bank. Lebanon”s banks have only used 70 percent of their deposits, at a request from the Central Bank, which has forced banks to put 15 percent of their deposits as reserve requirements and set aside another 15 percent as a reserve on their books. For the last five years, Salameh has prevented banks from getting involved in holding bad assets. Lebanon is suffering from big problems: the public debt, the lack of reform, and waste in the electricity and water sectors. However, the financial situation is firm, as evidenced by conversions from dollars into Lebanese Pounds, which signals confidence in the financial situation.
Salameh has benefited from his experience at his former institution (Merrill Lynch); he is not a believer in speculation and financial leveraging and is aware of the crises and shocks that Lebanon has constantly experienced. This is why he has insisted on guaranteeing liquidity, so that banks will be comfortable in all types of crisis. This is how Salameh has succeeded in confronting the international financial crisis that could have made things worse in Lebanon, if not for his praiseworthy mission and the ability of other Lebanese to set down good strategies for the country”s future.
When Sarkozy visits Lebanon on 6 January, he will be able to see how this small country has continued to recover under disastrous international economic conditions, even though its growth rate has been around zero for years. But will Sarkozy be able to perceive how fragile the political system is, a few months before parliamentary elections take place and possibly return Syrian hegemony to Lebanon? Sarkozy”s wager should be welcomed, but his wager could change after the elections, as took place after Hamas won the Palestinian elections!