War of words between Israel, Lebanon escalated in 2008
Despite the significant political and diplomatic strides taken by the Lebanese Republic over the past year, 2008 offered few signs of hope in the ongoing standoff between Lebanon, particularly the Shiite Hizbullah movement, and the state of Israel.
Indeed, the year began on an ominous note with the assassination of fabled Hizbullah tactician and field commander Imad Mughniyeh.
Listed as one of America”s most wanted for his alleged involvement in bombings and hijackings in the 1980s, Mughniyeh was killed by a car bomb on February 12 in an upscale residential neighborhood in Damascus.
The assassination came a year and a half after the devastating 2006 summer war between Lebanon and Israel, which was widely seen as a significant blow to the image of invincibility often conferred on the Israel military.
Hizbullah held a massive ceremony for Maghniyeh, whose life remains shrouded in mystery, in Beirut”s southern suburbs on Valentine”s Day – the same day that members of the rival March 14 camp held a large-scale memorial honoring the third anniversary of the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri.
Speaking at the memorial service, Hizbullah”s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, called Mughniyeh a "dear father, brother, mujahid and leader."
He also pinned the blame squarely on Israel, which while openly applauding the killing also denied any responsibility.
"In any coming war, not just one Imad Mughniyeh will be waiting for you, and not just a few thousand fighters. Imad Mughniyeh has left behind him tens of thousands of trained, equipped and ready-for-martyrdom fighters," Nasrallah told the many thousands in attendance.
"I tell [the Israelis]: You have killed Hajj Imad outside the recognized battle zone … I will not say much now, but I will quote one phrase from the July war [of 2006], when I addressed you for the first time and told you Zionists: “If you want an open war then let it be an open war,”" he added.
Despite ministerial-level denials of responsibility for the assassination, Israel”s popular Chennel 2 television bestowed "man of the year" honors on Mossad chief Meir Dagan this October for, among other intelligence operations, orchestrating the Mughniyeh hit.
The threats of renewed interstate conflict, however, were overshadowed in May when Lebanese political rivalries and disagreements devolved into street fighting in Beirut and other areas across the country.
A confrontational decision by Cabinet on Hizbullah”s private telecommunications network – which the group termed essential to its defense strategy against Israel – and its alleged airport security apparatus triggered a brief but decisive takeover of parts of the capital by Hizbullah and allied parties.
But by early summer, after the election of President Michel Sleiman and the formation of a unity government, the Lebanese-Israeli narrative, once again, took center stage.
In mid-July, Hizbullah and Israel took part in a large prisoner exchange, mediated by a UN-appointed German intelligence officer, at the border. The deal involved the return of the remains of Israeli soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, whose ambush and kidnapping had sparked the 2006 conflict.
In return, Israel provided the remains of dozens of Palestinian and Hizbullah fighters and five Lebanese combatants, including Samir Kuntar, who had been imprisoned for decades Israel after a deadly raid across the border in the late 1970s.
For both countries, the exchange rehashed memories of their shared, violent history, including Israel”s 22-year occupation of the South, small parts of which remain occupied.
And while Israelis mourned the return of their dead soldiers (whom many had thought were still alive), Kuntar, a Lebanese Druze, was given a state welcome at Beirut”s international airport upon his release.
Following the prisoner exchange Israel and Lebanon began to engage in an escalating war of words. By fall, Israeli military officials cautioned that all of Lebanon, civilians and fighters alike, could again be targeted in future conflicts, particularly if Hizbullah”s March 8 coalition were to win Lebanon”s springtime Parliamentary polls.
"We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, and cause immense damage and destruction," said General Gadi Eisenkot, head of Israel”s northern command. "From our perspective, these are military bases."
Major General Giora Eiland, former head of Israel”s national security council, also threatened the non-combatant Lebanese population: "People won”t be going to the beach in Beirut while Haifa residents are in shelters," he said.
Leading Israeli politicians like Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni – citing Hizbullah”s apparent rearmament since 2006 – have publicaly echoed these sentiments.
Moreover, in October a former Israeli ambassador to the European Union, writing for a US think tank, said that a resumption of fighting "appears inevitable," adding that Israel is "making preparations."
Hizbullah”s foreign relations chief, Nawaf Moussawi, often responded to the threats in kind, noting Hizbullah”s military capacity.
Even Hizbullah”s leading political rivals have painted Israel as Lebanon”s principle foe. "We are all convinced that Israel is the enemy of all the Lebanese people," Minister of State Wael Abu Faour, a March 14 politician, said at a defense strategy conference in mid-November.
Also in November, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, in his eighth report on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended hostilities of the 2006 war, voiced concern over the heightened rhetoric. "I am disturbed by the repeated exchange of threats between Israel and Hizbullah, in particular when apparently directed against civilians," he wrote.
Speaking more broadly of the resolution, which, among other obligations, bars the rearmament of Hizbullah and Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty, Ban said, "Further progress in the implementation of the resolution is increasingly overdue."
Indeed, amid the provocations and threats – including the occasional abduction of Lebanese farmers on the border, Hizbullah”s reportedly massive rearmament and regular Isreali flyovers – even modest expectations have collapsed. A potential Israeli withdrawal from the occupied village of Ghajar, subject to much speculation this fall, has yet to be happen.
Israel”s current deadly bombardment of the Gaza Strip has only further escalated tensions. While there is no indication that Hizbullah will respond on behalf of Gaza”s Hamas rulers and its embattled citizens, Nasrallah has called for mass demonstrations and uprisings across the region.
Also, because of the attack, Turkish-brokered Syrian-Israeli peace talks have been indefinitely suspended; and the possibility of parallel, indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel – although always unlikely – has disappeared.
Unfortunately, the outlook for next year is similarly troubling. Israel is to hold snap elections in February, and the hawkish right-wing prime ministerial candidate Benjamin Netanyahu is polling ahead. Several months after the Israeli elections, Lebanon is to hold parliamentary elections of its own, which the March 8 opposition (led by Hizbullah) could very well win.
Several Israeli officials have suggested that a government led by Hizbullah, labeld a "terrorist" group by Israel and the US, could be reason enough to launch an attack on Lebanon.