Hizbullah didn”t launch rockets, but didn”t stop them either – analysts
“They probably turned a blind eye” to attack on Israel
This week”s rocket attack from southern Lebanon on northern Israel is an isolated incident likely carried out by a radical Palestinian faction but with the tacit approval of Hizbullah, analysts say.
"For sure this is not the work of a Lebanese group," Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, told AFP. "All the Lebanese factions, including Hizbullah, want to maintain a minimum of stability, especially ahead of the June legislative elections."
He noted that Hizbullah”s style was not to fire "rusty rockets" just to provoke Israel.
"Either they launch a major operation or they do nothing," he said.
Still, Safa and several other analysts said Thursday”s attack could not have taken place without the indirect backing of Hizbullah, which controls much of southern Lebanon.
"Nothing happens in the south without Hizbullah”s knowledge," Safa said.
The powerful party, which is backed by Syria and Iran, fought a devastating war with Israel in 2006 that destroyed much of the south and killed 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 brough a cessation of hostilities in that conflict and since then the party, labeled a "terrorist" organization by Washington, has largely kept its weapons out of sight in the south and other parts of the country.
On Thursday, Hizbullah denied involvement in the rocket attack which lightly injured two people and drew retaliatory fire from Israel, saying it was committed to maintaining stability in the country.
But Nicolas Nassif, political analyst with the daily Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to the Hizbullah-led coalition in Parliament, said the denial did not mean the party was not implicated.
"I am convinced that Hizbullah has nothing to do with this but it is nonetheless responsible in one way or another," said Nassif. "Hizbullah may have hidden its weapons underground in the south but it remains highly influential in that part of the country."
He also argued that the rocket attack clearly served Hizbullah”s agenda.
"This was a message the party wanted to send to Israel," Nassif said. "That”s why they probably turned a blind eye to the attack."
Timor Goksel, former spokesman and senior adviser for the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), said the rocket attack was probably the work of the Damascus-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, which has military camps in Lebanon, near the Syrian border.
Its leader, Ahmed Jibril, had called on January 3 for new fronts to be opened up against Israel if it expanded its war on the Gaza Strip.
"I think that the attack was the work of the PFLP-GC," Goksel told AFP, echoing the sentiment of several Lebanese politicians. "It was solidarity, a sympathy message for people in Gaza." Jibril”s spokesman in Damascus has neither confirmed nor denied the group”s involvement in the attack.
Goksel and others said they believe the rocket firing was an isolated incident.
But "if something like this happens again, it won”t be a message anymore," Nassif warned, hinting of a larger conflict.