Rescuing Michel Aoun
Echoing the statements of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, Syria”s Al-Watan newspaper, which is owned by Rami Makhlouf, the cousin of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, earlier this week attacked the rationale behind a centrist, or independent, bloc in Lebanon”s upcoming parliamentary elections.
The only surprise here – if you can still call it that – is just how cozy Aoun and Assad seem to be these days. The attacks on an independent bloc signal two things: Aoun is genuinely alarmed that a Christian coalition associated with President Michel Sleiman may erode his own communal support; and Syria, in its desire to perpetuate Lebanese divisions, seeks to ensure that Christians will not unite around Sleiman and leave the divisive Aoun by the wayside.
The divisions in Lebanon since 2005 have devastated the country. The March 14 vs. opposition duality has paralyzed parliament, polarized the religious communities, and last year led to a mini-civil war that killed scores of people. A bloc of centrist candidates could help break that destructive dichotomy, even if we await more clarification about what this means precisely.
More specifically, the Christian community may benefit. Christians, particularly the Maronites, have been disoriented in recent years. They are broadly disenchanted by the stark split in the country, and a bloc of independents may be one way out of this. Aoun has disappointed. The general still has his supporters, but his reform program has been a tad too innovative. To combat political nepotism, he appointed his son-in-law a minister; to defend free speech, he routinely attacks newspapers such as Al-Nahar and L”Orient-Le Jour; and to defend Lebanese sovereignty and independence, he can always be called upon to defend Syrian and Iranian interests.
No wonder Syria”s Al-Watan has ridden to Aoun”s rescue.
The general will continue to attack the idea of an independent bloc in the coming weeks, but what he”s really expecting is that Syria will intervene on his behalf. This may backfire if Michel Murr sticks to his guns and carries through with his confrontation with the general. We do worry, however, when we see that the Syrians are sending envoys to persuade Murr to change his mind. Murr is pragmatic and may yet go along with Syria if he gains key concessions from Aoun in the form of greater parliamentary representation for his allies.
Nothing in Lebanon is what it seems. Syria rarely puts all its eggs in one basket. We have to wonder what the Syrian fall-back position is if Aoun”s popularity caves in. We welcome an independent bloc if it means less Christian dissension, and if it means that a truly independent Lebanon can firm itself up. But if an independent bloc somehow turns itself into an instrument to advance Syria”s interests, then we part ways. An independent bloc must be independent, and must strengthen independence. Less than that and we say: No Thanks!
Michel Aoun has said that those who are not with him are against him. Certainly less people are with him than in 2005, and not a few are turning against him. That”s fine, as long as Lebanon comes out the winner.