When will Hizbullah avenge Mughniyeh assassination?
Analysts say regional peace moves may delay resistance group”s retaliation
Thursday marks the one-year anniversary of the assassination of Imad Mughnieyh, the mysterious Hizbullah commander killed by a car bomb last February in Damascus, and the question remains if and how the group will fulfill is vow to avenge his death.
Although no one claimed responsibility for killing Mughniyeh, long on US and Israeli most wanted lists, Hizbullah was quick to point the finger at Israel.
But even as Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah renews his call for vengeance and Israel warns its citizens of a potential strike, defense and political analysts in Lebanon question how feasible a Hizbullah response is, at least in the near future.
"The decision is not entirely in Hizbullah”s hands, although there is pressure from within to respond," defense analyst and retired army general Elias Hanna told The Daily Star.
"Nasrallah promised that he will avenge the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh and he”s accused Israel, the Mossad," he said. "But all of this needs to be put in a regional context," he added, pointing to the potential renewal of indirect Syrian-Israeli talks and the opening of US-Iranian dialogue as a likely check on any strike.
Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, offered a similar viewpoint.
"It”s still not clear who assassinated Mughniyeh," he said. "My expectation is that Syria and Iran still are interested in discussions with the US and they will lean on Hizbullah not pursue this possibility."
"There”s always time later," he added.
In the year since his death, the military tactician from Southern Lebanon, widely blamed for large-scale bombings and hijackings in the 1980s and 90s, has been at the heart of the much of the saber rattling between Hizbullah and Israel – with Hizbullah promising revenge and Israel, in turn, warning of a bruising retaliation.
Last year at a huge memorial service for Mughniyeh in Beirut”s southern suburbs, Nasrallah said that Israel had expanded the battlefield and repeated his 2006 warning against initiating an "open war."
Nasrallah renewed the promise to avenge Mughniyeh last month. "The Israelis live in fear of our revenge," Nasrallah said. "The decision to respond to the killing is still on. We decide the time and the place."
Strategic analyst and retired Lebanese army general Amin Hotteit suggested that Nasrallah should be taken at his word.
"I think that Hizbullah cannot leave this matter. It can”t forget it. Not forgiven, not forgotten," he said.
"Nasrallah cannot delete his promise," he added.
"In the eyes of secretary general Nasrallah, Mughniyeh was the commander of the two victories in 2000 and 2006," he said, referring the Israeli withdrawal from most of South Lebanon and the 2006 summer war. "When and where? That is the major question."
While Israel has refused to officially claim responsibility for the assassination, a popular Israeli television station awarded Mossad boss Meir Dagan the "man of the year" award last year for intelligence operations, including the Mughniyeh hit.
And last week, the popular Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot reported that Israeli Mossad agents did indeed kill Mughniyeh after the CIA shared information obtained from a Hizbullah operative captured in Iraq.
Israeli officials have regularly promised a massive response to any Hizbullah attack, threats echoed last week by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who said all of Lebanon would be held accountable if Hizbullah were to strike.
"The question is what will Israel do?" Carnegie”s Salem said.
Citing the recent Israeli elections and the upcoming announcement of a new prime minister, Salem said that over the next year "Israel will have to define its strategy vis-ˆ-vis Hizbullah." In addition, he noted that any future Syrian-Israeli talks will rest heavily on Damascus clamping down on the group.
Similarly, Hanna suggested that any response would have to wait until US-Iranian talks developed, but could follow if talks fell apart. In that case, he said, the attack would have to be big.
"The target must be high, a high-value target – [equivalent of] the general staff of Hizbullah," he said, noting that for the act to be seen as revenge Israel would have to know it was done by Hizbullah.
"The Israeli response would also have to be big," he added.
Hotteit was less certain that regional developments, particularly those involving Syria and Iran, would affect Hizbullah”s plans. "We must separate Iran and this special thing. Iran can be an adviser, it can”t be a commander," he said.
"If Hizbullah forgets this matter," he added "then it means that Israel can go out at anytime and kill Hizbullah officials."