Iranians beware: The rules of the international game are changing
Iran has proven especially adept over the last few years at thwarting and/or stalling an international campaign to force the Islamic Republic to abandon its nuclear energy program, which Tehran insists is peaceful but many Western states claim is a merely ruse for developing an atomic weapon. Relying on heavily on its relations with Russia and China, Iran has so far managed to avoid Security Council efforts to tighten the noose by imposing another round of punitive sanctions. But before getting too comfortable and declaring "victory" over their adversaries, the Iranians should take note of the fact that the rules of the game are rapidly changing. In fact, one sole factor has the potential to dramatically alter the playing field and usher in a completely different set of rules: the global economic crisis.
Now that the economies of Europe, America and East Asia beginning to experience the pinch of recession, governments around the world can be expected to behave very differently as a result. While the temptation to retreat to isolationism and implement protectionist measures remains strong, most states recognize that doing so will prompt other countries to do the same, thereby forcing an even greater slowdown of their own trade and commerce. Everywhere you turn these days, there is talk of the need resist the protectionist impulse and to create a new global economic order or "new deal" that would overhaul the world”s crippled financial system. The question remains, however, what will this new global order look like?
One evolving relationship to watch closely as these economic developments continue to unfold will be that of the United States and Russia. President Barack Obama is expected to meet with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in April, and one can expect that the period leading up to their talks to be rife with experimentation aimed at redefining their bilateral relations. Already we have seen evidence – in the form of a letter to Medvedev – that Obama is willing to explore new strategies in order to achieve a coordinated approach on shared problems and concerns. As these talks continue, the parameters of items under negotiation could continue to expand. All the while, the global economy will be forcing both parties to play an increasingly cooperative role with one another.
Iran has until now demonstrated a mastery of the rules of the international game, and has used these to its advantage to outmanuever its adversaries. But with the current international order is in a state of flux, the rules are quickly changing.