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Hezbollah redeploys among Christians
Hezbollah’s electoral machine has moved north. The party’s second-in-command, Sheikh Naim Qassem, announced a few days ago that the Party of God had shifted the focus of its campaigning apparatus to the mostly Christian districts of Jbeil, Kesrouan, the Metn and North Lebanon. Sure of their votes in South Lebanon, Hezbollah is now attempting to help out the party’s ally, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, who is apparently unable to run his campaign in those areas alone.
While it may seem like no more than a friend lending a helping hand, Hezbollah’s move has dangerous connotations. As so often in the opposition, Hezbollah has proclaimed itself the orchestrator, and is taking over the March 8 alliance’s electoral campaigning. Judging by this control, the party, influenced of course by its regional allies, would run the show if March 8 won the elections.
And a March 8 parliament would open the door for its ally Iran to extend its influence in Lebanon, paving the way for what many fear would be the country becoming a battlefield for the Tehran’s hawkish regime’s military aspirations. Hezbollah, whose vast arsenal has been condemned by March 14 and the international community, could use its military might to help in those battles and prevent any significant regional and international changes which might disadvantage them.
If March 14 forms the next parliamentary opposition, there may be little they can do to curb Hezbollah. The “obstructing third” cabinet veto, granted to the opposition in the Doha conference in May of 2008, will expire after the parliamentary elections. So a parliamentary majority is regarded as a guarantee for the party to get what it wants.
Conversely, however, the increased power the of the new parliamentary majority could mean that these elections are an opportunity for those who don’t want the Islamic Republic calling the shots, to save the Lebanese state.
The devil’s advocate
Obviously, Hezbollah has an interest in Aoun garnering as many Christian votes as possible to help the March 8 alliance secure a majority in the next parliament. But Aoun’s association with the Party of God and his recent inflammatory statements against former allies has alienated a lot of his supporters who voted for him in the 2005 parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s heavy-handed and very public involvement in Aoun’s campaign might backfire, drawing more attention to the controversial alliance, which helped dishearten so many Lebanese Christians in the first place.
Aoun’s popularity is still in doubt, despite Hezbollah’s best efforts. Helping his fledgling campaign required moving Hezbollah’s electoral staff and equipment to certain Christian districts where Aoun is weak. Earlier this month, after Qassem’s announcement, March 14 General Coordinator Fares Soueid noted that it was Hezbollah political bureau member Ghaleb Abu Zeinab who was heading the campaigning in the Christian areas, where Hezbollah opened a number of electoral offices and centers.
Scenarios
Thanks to their joining forces, both Hezbollah and the FPM announced lists Wednesday, though Aoun only for the Beirut I district. In his televised speech that night, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah told viewers, “The Lebanese elections…will not attain security and stability unless through understanding and partnership,” though partnership in Hezbollah’s dictionary means little more than exploiting whatever means necessary, with the help of its allies, to get what it wants, in this case maintaining and using the obstructing third vote in the cabinet if the party failed to win a majority. And as the Lebanese remember all too well, the opposition got the veto power it now wields thanks to its bloody attempted coup last May that has left deep scars across Beirut and other areas of the country.
If the opposition does win the parliament majority, how would this affect Lebanon?
First, Lebanon would become a part of the Syrian-Iranian axis, which would put the country in a precarious position with its southern neighbor, Israel. Considering the damage done to Lebanon during the July War and the havoc wreaked recently in Gaza, it would not be difficult to imagine a ruthless retaliation if Hezbollah and its powerful Iranian backers were to knock the chip off Israel’s shoulder, especially if the party ran the state and its institutions. It would give Tel Aviv an excuse to bomb the living daylights out of all of Beirut, not just Hezbollah strongholds.
Moreover, Lebanon’s financial situation would worsen as economic reforms and foreign aid, such as the donations promised the country in the Paris III conference, would probably not be sustained under a Hezbollah-led cabinet.
Moderate Arab states, not wanting involvement with a hawkish regime, would be forced to distance themselves from the Lebanese political scene, and independent forces within the country would be more exposed to harassment and sabotage.
In other words, the whole of Lebanon would feel like Dahiyeh, the Hezbollah heartland in the southern suburbs of Beirut where few non-Hezbollah allied members feel welcome or openly declare any anti-March 8 views.
As for Aoun, he sold himself and his followers to this enterprise a long time ago, and Hezbollah exploited the chance to take its campaign to the country’s Christian areas in an attempt to rescue the General from his own transgressions. If they were to move their mentality to the government, however, the ramifications will, for everyone, be extensive.