Nasrallah has erred in gauging the current regional dynamic
The war of words between the Egyptian regime and the leader of Hizbullah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, is an example of role-playing gone a bit haywire, although it”s understandable in today”s fluctuating geopolitical situation. Nasrallah simply erred in using his position as the leader of Hizbullah to make a series of uncalled-for remarks about the Egyptian regime of President Husni Mubarak.
Nasrallah ramped things up during the recent Israeli offensive against Gaza, calling on Egyptians to overthrow their regime and longing for some "free officers" who might pull a Nasser-like coup against the state. Why Nasrallah would take on Egypt after being caught red-handed at running an arms smuggling network in that country?
The Egyptian state is a massive institution and irrespective of Hizbullah”s recent achievements, the party is simply not a regional superpower that can throw its weight around at will. Nasrallah seriously erred in gauging the regional dynamic. Boasting about his group”s ability to infiltrate other countries is not the kind of message that Hizbullah”s allies and would-be interlocutors would favor at such a juncture, when the big powers gauge possible new lines of conflict and cooperation in the Middle East.
But Mubarak”s regime isn”t above reproach either. Egypt finally exited its crisis of relations with the Bush administration when the White House changed hands this year, but doesn”t seem to be on significantly better ground with the Obama team.
Egypt”s media offensive against Hizbullah makes sense when put in the context of a regime struggling for a role to play. A $3 billion annual subsidy is difficult to defend when you”re seen as not particularly effective on any front, whether it”s clamping down on arms to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, or bringing stability to other hotspots in the region. This is in sharp contrast with countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan, where Obama appears enthusiastic, for now, about spending billions of dollars under the modified "war on terror" rubric. With Mubarak scheduled to make a trip to the US this spring, a very public slap-down of Hizbullah makes political sense, although wild accusations of Hizbullah seeking to flip 80 million Sunni Muslims and Christians toward Shiism only weaken the campaign.
As for Nasrallah”s calculus in gloating over the ability to infiltrate other sovereign states, it might reap some points in the Arab street, but not in the Arab order, where caution and reading the changing regional map, and not chest-beating, are what”s needed.