Any earthquakes in Iran have the potential to rattle Lebanon
Iran may be plunging into a deep political crisis in the aftermath of the country”s presidential election, the official results of which have been publicly contested by two of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad”s opponents. The tensions that have surged in the aftermath of the Iranian vote ought to prompt concern in Lebanon, particularly in view of the Islamic Republic”s long-standing relations with Hizbullah.
The crisis that is potentially brewing in Iran goes beyond a mere dispute among rival candidates over the presidency. Frustrations are mounting among ordinary citizens who are growing increasingly rebellious toward the restrictions that have been imposed upon them in recent years. But more importantly, divisions are emerging among the country”s leading clerics, pitting figures like Ahmadinejad against those such as Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the powerful Assembly of Experts, which in theory has the constitutional power to depose the supreme leader (though this power has never been put to practice). Any misstep by one of these clerical leaders risks setting off a chain of events that could lead to prolonged civil strife.
Any tremors in Iran have the potential to rattle Lebanon because of the historic ties that bind the Shiite communities of the two countries. The exact scenarios that could emerge are difficult to anticipate, though one can expect that internal pressure on the Iranian regime would certainly yield pressures on the Shiite community in Lebanon.
That pressure could manifest itself in a number of ways. For example, a divided polity in Iran could lead to divisions among the Shiite leadership in this country, or within and/or between local political parties and movements. Worse yet, Iran”s internal melee could prompt leaders there to act out in other arenas by prodding Hizbullah into engaging in dangerous activities.
Times like these require wise and cautious leadership, both in Iran and in Lebanon. If a crisis emerges in Iran, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah”s best bet would be to keep his party at a safe distance from that country”s internal brawl. Iranian leaders have often stated publicly that Lebanon”s affairs are for the Lebanese. This might be a good time for the Lebanese to reciprocate that sentiment.