Ahmadinejad may have won the election but Iranians want reform
This weekend”s presidential election in Iran has raised key questions about the domestic political health of the Islamic Revolution, only a few months after it celebrated its 30th birthday.
Western media outlets and experts are pouring over the pre-election commentary and analysis, which supported the possibility of a win by challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
One of the things they”re reviewing is the possibility that the canvassing and reporting focused too heavily on areas like North Tehran, where attitudes are more "liberal." After the election, Western officials and media have generally seized on the possibility that fraud marred the election results.
However, one Western polling effort, by the Center for Public Opinion and New America Foundation, raises several interesting points and suggests that Ahmadinejad did in fact enjoy significant support, and was thus poised to win without fraud or other manipulation.
Thus, we can view the election in two ways: by focusing on the alleged misconduct, or analyzing the standing of the regime itself. The second is certainly more worrying for the authorities.
The nationwide survey found, along with support for Ahmadinejad, a clear pro-reform agenda. Most of those polled said they wanted a supreme leader elected by the people, a truly radical step. They also favored a free media and more personal freedoms as government priorities, matching the importance of the economy as a national issue.
The same people who wanted movement in this reformist direction largely supported Ahmadinejad, however. The poll”s coordinators have speculated that the public sees him as a Nixon-like figure, who is "strong" enough as a negotiator to obtain a good deal for Iran on the nuclear issue – this is also a popular issue with the public, based on what we know about Iranian nationalist pride.
Thus, we have a situation in which – if there was fraud – the people supported Mousavi and reform, or – if there wasn”t fraud, and based on this poll – the people supported Ahmadinejad and reform.
Mousavi”s supporters mistrust the regime for the way it handled the election, while Ahmadinejad”s supporters and others want to have a stronger Iran through electing their political leaders, including the Revolution”s supreme leader.
What”s clear is the failure in Iran”s democratic process and the state”s relationship to its people. No matter the analysis, perception in politics is important – many Iranians apparently see Ahmadinejad as a Nixon, whether that means manipulative and autocratic, or strong on foreign policy. Unfortunately for the regime, its public perception appears to be a one-sided affair, and not in favor of the rulers.