Lebanon may need storm windows to protect itself from Iran”s tempest
Strong winds are blowing from the east as the battle between Iran”s ruling conservative establishment and a formerly disparate collection of reformists and moderates has become increasingly intractable. In consecutive editorials over the weekend, Iran”s conservative Kayhan newspaper denounced Mir Hossein Mousavi, the defeated presidential candidate, as a traitor, an American agent and a murderer of innocents, whose followers don”t accept the system of the Islamic Republic.
The editorialist responsible for levying these dramatic charges is Hossein Shariatmadari, an aide and confidant to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Shariatmadari”s incriminations, which also targeted former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, echo threats by commanders of both the Revolutionary Guards and the paramilitary Basij militia.
But in the wake of the disputed Iranian elections, won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and certified by the Guardians” Council, the opposition remains defiant. On Saturday, Mousavi released a 25-page report detailing election irregularities, and on Sunday a second losing reformist candidate, Mehdi Karoubi, said Ahmadinejad”s new government would be illegitimate.
Criticism of the polls and the treatment of pro-Mousavi demonstrators has also extended to the clerical elite. Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a rival of Ahmadinejad and powerful cleric, has played down the conflict, but described it as unsatisfying. And on Sunday a collection of clerics in Qom, the Islamic Republic”s spiritual nerve center, released a statement calling the vote "invalid" and condemning the violent suppression of reformist protests.
Between calls of treason and illegitimacy there is a thinning strip of common ground in the Islamic Republic. Whether the tension explodes or the government is simply exposed to continuing domestic and international criticism, the situation has become increasingly perilous. Nearing the end of its first month and showing no sign of abating, the potential for the Iranian tempest to move beyond the country”s borders has grown.
In Lebanon, it may be time to put up storm windows.
The conflict in Iran poses significant risks to Lebanon and the new Lebanese leadership should be doing its best to ensure that the deteriorating situation there does not reflect negatively here. This may involve high-level consultations, particularly with Lebanese parties that are closely allied with the Islamic Republic, like Hizbullah.
Beyond Lebanon, an adaptive diplomatic approach should be pursued that appeals or at least placates the two increasingly hostile sides. The burden of calming tensions now rests with leading regional mediator Turkey, and possibly Russia and China.
Iran”s Islamic Republic is said to rest on two pillars: one of spiritual integrity and another of popular legitimacy. If one of those pillars falls, the collapse will be felt across the region. Whether or not this happens, Lebanon should be prepared.