Egyptian, Saudi Influence Fading Amid Defiance by Iran, Hizbullah
Saudi Arabia and Egypt are increasingly viewed in the region as diminished actors whose influence is on the wane as a result of challenges by Iran and Syria and the defiance of Hizbullah and Hamas, political experts told the New York Times.
"Even while Iran has been focused on its domestic political crisis, and Syria has struggled with an economic and water crisis, their continued support for Hamas and Hizbullah has preserved for them a strong hand in matters like the formation of a new government in Lebanon and efforts to reconcile Palestinian factions," NYT quoted officials and analysts as saying.
The newspaper said that Saudi and Egyptian officials acknowledge their influence is waning.
"Saudi King Abdullah has decided that Arab unity is the only way to re-establish the kingdom”s role and to blunt Iran”s growing influence," NYT said. That”s why the king has begun a diplomatic drive to smooth relations with Libya”s Moammer Gadhafi and Syrian President Bashar Assad.
"Egyptian officials say they wish the king well but have declined to participate in his reconciliation initiative because they think it will fail as long as Syria determines that the advantages of playing the spoiler outweigh the gains of pushing for peace," according to the newspaper.
"If there is no peace, then all those who bet against peace are winning," said an Egyptian official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid increasing tensions with the United States or Saudi Arabia. "And all those who act and bet there will be peace are losing, like us. We are losing because we are putting this bet."
"Egypt”s role is receding regionally, and its cards are limited," said Emad Gad, an expert in international relations at the government-financed Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. "Their main card, which is reconciliation and peace, is receding."
"Even as its vast reserves of oil money have expanded its global influence, Saudi Arabia finds itself unable to exert its will even on its own border, where it blames Iran for stoking an uprising against the government in Yemen; or in Lebanon, where its chief source of influence, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was assassinated," NYT said.
"Saudi”s role in the last 10 years has declined," said Abdulkarim H. al-Dekhayel, a political science professor at King Saud University in Riyadh. "The leadership now feels it has to try to reset the agenda."
The newspaper said that Riyadh believes the key to reestablishing a strong hand in the region rests broadly in Arab unity and specifically in Syria.
Damascus "has close economic and political ties with Iran. It hosts the political leadership of the militant group Hamas. It shares a border with Iraq and has been accused of allowing militants and weapons to cross over. It has a close alliance with Hizbullah. All of these are excellent tools for undermining Saudi efforts to blunt Iran and push for peace with Israel," NYT added.
"The relations between the Arab countries, if they are solid, if the understanding is there, if the cohesiveness of their policy exists, then there is no worry," said Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia”s longtime foreign minister. "It is only when there is division, and looking for other alternatives between the Arab countries, that creates problems."
But Saudi Arabia”s challenge is also one of leverage, political analysts and Saudi officials said. How does Saudi Arabia persuade Syria to switch from the antipeace camp, to the pro-peace camp?
One of the strategies, according to NYT, involves Lebanon. "Syria has made it clear that it views events in Lebanon as central to its national security, as well as its pride. Saudi Arabia has tried in recent years to keep Lebanon in its orbit through proxies and cash infusions. But lately it has suggested that it might not object to Syria reasserting political control there."
"What is recognized is that Lebanon is more important to Syria than any other Arab country," said a Saudi official who spoke on the condition of anonymity so as not to antagonize officials in either country. "It”s in its backyard. We understand that. But what we are looking for is some kind of Arab unity to stop foreign intervention in our Arab affairs."