Signs point to Iran endgame
This weekend, the US and Russian leaders warned that time was running out for Iran over the future of its nuclear program. Taken in isolation, such a stance might reflect joint determination, or perhaps a bid by Moscow to gain favor with Washington on the Iran issue. However, also Sunday, Russia’s energy minister said the construction of a Russian nuclear power station in Iran was delayed, ostensibly for “technical reasons.”
The latest news cycle is also dealing with the possible repercussions of a recently-declared Iranian nuclear site near Qom, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has been adamant in demanding answers.
To this we can add the news that Iran might try to reduce gasoline consumption by 20 percent this winter; although the Islamic Republic is considered an oil-rich country, it’s not a gasoline superpower, as it imports 40 percent of its gasoline needs. Gasoline might be cheap there, thanks to hefty state subsidies, but it’s not plentiful. In other words, sanctions would hurt.
Finally, a torrent of rhetoric from the Israeli and pro-Israeli camp, spearheaded by US neoconservatives, has focused squarely on Iran. It might be unproven accusations that the Iran sent weapons to Hizbullah on a ship recently commandeered by the Israelis (as in, where’s the international investigation and confirmation?) Or, it might be the attack on the Alavi Foundation for its purported ties to Iran (as in, headlines screaming about Iran “controlling” skyscrapers in New York).
It doesn’t take much to connect these dots and discover a worrying picture. It might be premature to predict doom, but the need for concern is obvious: a ratcheting up of rhetoric by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev; the stance of Russia’s energy minister; the news of the Qom site; the fear of gasoline shortages in Iran; the pro-war faction sharpening its knives.
The dots might all come together into a messy situation for the region, if a deal isn’t worked out. Tehran has acknowledged that even if the military option is avoided, sanctions could cause real problems for Iran, which is already facing post-poll street clashes and a bombing campaign by local extremists.
There appear to be three scenarios: war, with its potential for catastrophic consequences; sanctions, with their potential for increasing tension and resentment; and a deal, with its potential to disappoint if not conducted with creativity, statesmanship and good intentions.
The signs are pointing to a less-than-desirable endgame, since there are few indications that anyone’s making serious progress on option number three.