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I have heard and keep hearing, many enthusiastic supporters of Assad Regime argue, insist, debate that President Assad proved to be invincible, beat half the globe, fought against dozen of foreign countries yet managed to stay in power, emerged victorious, more powerful, stronger, will return to its regional effective role, become a tool, a factor, an element of equilibrium to maintain balance, stability and peace in the region, a positive force.
I don’t want to act sarcastic, to ridicule, mock, make fun of some idea is not my habit, it goes against my style and political/personal preferences and ethics, I respect all points of view, I do not want to find any suggestion ridiculous or absurd, but I find such ideas much to extreme, I see some who make them are quite experienced, and have a reputation for being advanced analysts, for this reason I find that some are resorting to demagogue tendencies.
I would like to point out simple facts.
First of all Syria witnessed a catastrophic destructive devastating civil war, it’s economy, industry and financial reserves surely have been exhausted after more than ten years of fighting.
I am sure it’s military has been exhausted, lost at least tens of thousands of casualties, It has been reported that at least 8 Million Syrians have left Syria and became refugees in another countries
Now some argue that the fact that 8 Million Syrians left Syria should not be regarded a weakness for the regime, and that those the majority of these refugees were ones who opposed the Assad and Baath rule of Syria, that most of them belong to the Muslim Sunni sect, the largest religious sect in Syria, and they are among the Sunnis who oppose the Muslim Alawi sect minority rule of Syria, I find this argument hard to accept and grasp, a nation that loses 1/3rd of its population as refugees, and maybe half a million casualties, it loses a huge man power, therefore it gets weaker, so if a regime rules a country that lost more than 1/3rd of it’s man power cannot return to the region as a STRONGER regime or country for that matter, I will not use the word state, because, with all due respect, I cannot see a totalitarian regime acting as a state level oriented country
Now most will argue that all this can be compensated, financial, military, population, economical, losses, loss of infrastructure, that all may be rebuilt, that Syria will rebuild, it will reemerge, so why do I insist to refuse to admit it has emerged victorious and therefore stronger in the near future .
My analysis and verdict that not only Syria as people and country lost and came out heavily defeated, by its own regime but also the regime lost something it can never regain is because I believe the regime also lost the control and possession of the political decision in Syria, it also gave up it’s political ruling leadership practically to regional and international two powers, Russia in the first place and then Iran
In the case of Assad regime, the Baath regime is a regime of a minority where at least from 35 to 50% of the Syrians oppose this regime, hundreds of thousands of Syrians demonstrated against it in almost every Syrian province, ikt is a totalitarian regime, therefore the countries that now control Syrian political ground and soil, Iran, Russian air force, Lebanese Hizbullah fighters, Turks, opposition forces, these forces combined make it impossible for the Syrian army to control the land, therefore Assad has lost control over 80% of Syrian lands for good, and the only way Syrians ever regain their sovereignty over their country is though a national liberation war, The Syrian regime will never play the uniting force that Syrians gather around it to wage such a liberation war, after all, Assad regime has invented more than half of them, legitimized them, therefore it would be naïve to expect that one day Assad will demand that these forces leave and upon refusal lead a united national liberation war against them.
In the beginning the Baath regime had the chance to avoid all this, the first demonstrations should have been a one final wake up call, so the Baath regime reconciles with all the Syrians, compromises, chooses the path of democracy, through a sincere serious courageous national dialogue, but it chose the path of denial.
One minor indication, Jordanian Queen, Rania Al-Abdullah, at the first year of the Syrian uprising, once told the press that she called the Syrian first lady, Asma El Assad, to ask her about the Fierce demonstrations in Syria, she said she was shocked and astonished about Mrs. Assad reply, when EL Asma told her that: “Why? All is normal in Syria, I have heard that there are demonstrations in Jordan, are you ok.“
The Syrian regime chose the worst path at the start of the uprising, it took one bad approach and choice after another, it chose to deny.
The demonstrations started peaceful, Assad cracked down hard, it chose violence to scare the demonstrators, when this approach did not work, the regime decided a worst approach, it decided that the amount of force enough was still too soft to scare the demonstrators, even though it had used extensive force against peaceful civilians.
Here the regime chose an extremely wrong path, a crucial deadly mistake; it decided that it needs to have a justification and excuse to use even more extensive extreme force, to scare the demonstrators
It’s propaganda that Islamic extremists and terrorists were behind the uprising; it needed to militarize the uprising.
The Syrian opposition abroad kept advising and pleading Assad to come to his senses, to choose dialog, to become aware and wise, to realize the consequences of his extreme reaction and response, they warned that the peaceful demonstrations will lose ground to extreme retaliations, that at the moment everything is still under control but things might get out of hand.
Here, the regime miscalculated, it made such a crucial shortsighted mistake, it underestimated the consequences of this adventure.
The regime started to release Extremists form prisons, it thought that this will be something that it can control, crack down the demonstrators, pointing out the existence of violent extreme religious elements.
How mistaken it turned out, it never realized that soon, these extremist groups will attract more from abroad, years ago, The Syrian regime had made easy the passage between the Syrian and Iraqi borders of jihadists, they knew the way back and forth, a huge miscalculation, now those who knew the way back and forth decided it is time to pay a visit to Syria.
Turkey opened borders.
The balance shifted rapidly, now the Syrian Army was outnumbered, the air superiority could not secure ground superiority.
Assad realized he lost the grip, he started to invite Lebanese Shiite Hizbullah, these made matters worse, the more Hizbullah fighters entered Syria, the more Muslim Sunni jihadists were motivated into Syria, to fight the Shiite Hizbullah.
This was a vicious cycle, Assad regime had to resort to Shiite mercenaries from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iranian revolutionary guards also came for the rescue.
All this was not solving the problem of the war balance shifting to the opposition, until Russian air force came to the rescue.
Now it was clear that Assad army was out of operations, now the war was run by Hizbullah ground fighters, Russian air force and weapons, and Iranian finance, therefore the Syrian president had little to say about decisions.
Now yes, finally, after years of fighting, Assad regime managed to survive, only survive, but not emerge victorious, nor stronger than before
Finally, I, as a Lebanese, my major concern is, that when and while the Syrian rule is returning to the Arab league, and attempting to play a role, any role, in the region, whether it plays such a role or not, my main concern is that is does not get back to its old habits, and tries to undermine Lebanese stability, security, sovereignty and independence, that it respects Lebanon as an independent entity, state, a sovereign state, and never ever interferes in Lebanese internal affairs, for its army never ever to try to step foot in Lebanon.