Aoun”s trip to Syria seen as bid to corner more votes in Lebanon
Analysts say visit could backfire in polls scheduled for next year
Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun traveled to Syria on Wednesday in a bid to position himself as supreme leader of Lebanon”s Christians ahead of next year”s pivotal elections, but questions remain whether his sojourn will win him any more votes or followers, a number of analysts told The Daily Star.
"He is putting himself as the sole speaker of the Christian community in Lebanon," said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University.
"He is putting himself above all parties in Lebanon, including the presidency."
Aoun will spend several days in Syria, against which he declared a war of liberation when he headed the Lebanese Armed Forces in 1989. Aoun fled to France after losing that conflict in 1990, but he returned in 2005 and since 2006 has aligned himself with Syria”s allies in Lebanon, in particular with Hizbullah.
The reception being accorded to Aoun in Syria signals that, despite the history of violence between the former general and Damascus, Aoun is cementing his status as Syria”s most important Christian partner in Lebanon, said Oussama Safa, executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.
"It”s out in the open now that he is Damascus” Christian ally in Lebanon," Safa said. The Syrians are cooperating in creating the impression that Aoun carries more weight among the Christian community than Lebanese President Michel Sleiman, Safa added. "This is really the main message."
Aoun is also using the visit to promote an image as chieftain of all Christians in the Middle East, with his tour including several Christian sites and gatherings with the Syrian faithful, said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
"The part has not been played before, really, in this way," Salem said, adding that Aoun, however, was only one of a series of Lebanese Maronites to trek to Damascus recently and has been working with Syria”s Lebanese allies for almost three years. One mustn”t exaggerate the importance of this visit."
Aoun is traveling to Syria with his sights squarely trained on the general elections slated for May 2009, which most expect to be tight and bitterly contested, Hanna said. Aoun might well be asking Syrian President Bashar Assad to help smooth over tensions with the Amal movement, Aoun”s partner in the March 8 coalition, over how to divvy up districts such as Jezzine and Marjayoun-Hasbaya which are mixed between Christians and AMAL”s mostly Shiite backers, Hanna added.
"He is playing it regionally for local politics," Hanna said.
Indeed, the sight of Assad and Aoun smiling together might score votes for the former general outside his traditional Christian base, Salem said. "Strong Syrian support in any election might be important for him and his party, who are running in many districts," Salem said, adding that it was still unclear which of Lebanon”s rival factions held the upper hand.
In any case, the visit tightens the bonds between Aoun and his allies in the Syrian-backed March 8 camp, who seem more skilled than their opponents in the March 14 alliance in matters of planning and execution, Safa said. For the March 14 Forces, seeing their archenemy Damascus find a close ally in a popular Christian leader represents a "very worrisome development," he added.
But other analysts questioned whether Aoun”s Syrian gambit might cost him the support of some Christian voters, who have long viewed Syrian interests in Lebanon with skepticism.
With Lebanon”s Sunni and Shiite communities split almost uniformly along the political divide, the country”s Christians will probably tip the balance in the 2009 polls, and Aoun might well be misjudging the strength of their antipathy toward Damascus, Hanna said. The contours of the Christian community have changed, not only since Aoun led his war of liberation against Syria, but also since May 2005, when Aoun notched resounding victories in Christian-majority regions, added Hanna,
"He is a stubborn guy," said Hanna, who fought with Aoun against Syria. "He is narrow-minded. He miscalculated his war of liberation. When all the world wanted Syria to stay in Lebanon, he declared a war of liberation. So now, when everybody wants Syria to stay out of Lebanon, I hope that this choice of policy will not hurt Lebanon and the Christians."
Hilal Khashan, chair of the department of political science and public administration at the American University of Beirut, said he had seen polls showing that Aoun”s support in the Kesrouan region had plummeted to about 30 percent from 70 percent in 2005. Aoun”s political strategy has been to mine the frustration felt by Christians over the loss of some of their political privileges in the 1989 Taif Accord, but he has made poor tactical choices, such as siding with Syria and directing criticism toward the country”s Sunnis, Khashan added.
"Damascus is not the place to groom a Lebanese Christian leader," Khashan said. "Aoun will not sweep in Kesrouan in the way he did in 2005. The mood in the Christian street has changed a lot since then. This man has trouble with his own constituency in Kesrouan. He will not have the same number of deputies to send to the Parliament."
Throwing in his lot with Syria and fashioning grandiose designs as a Christian master mirror the flaws that could cost Aoun in the polls: expedience in choosing partners and outsize ambition, Khashan added.
"Michel Aoun has been eager to ally himself with anybody if this would allow him to make any gains," Khashan said. "He is a maverick politician who doesn”t understand the intricacies of the Lebanese political system. The Lebanese system is based on balances, very delicate balances. Aoun can never be part of a balance. Wherever he operates, he wants to predominate."
Syria, meanwhile, also has much to gain from deepening its ties with Aoun, the analysts said. Damascus has begun to break free of its international isolation partly by agreeing to formal diplomatic ties with Beirut, at the same time it has regained some of the sway that it lost here after Syrian troops departed Lebanon in 2005 in the wake of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri”s assassination, Safa said.
Although Syria has always denied involvement in the killing, the looming UN tribunal to try suspects in the case might put pressure again on Damascus to curb its interests in Lebanon, so having firm relationships with domestic leaders such as Aoun would help Syria blunt any fallout from the tribunal, Khashan said.
In addition, the mere fact that a former foe such as Aoun has come calling on Assad also means a "feather in his cap" for the Syrian president, Salem said.
And when the past Syrian enemy remains a powerful figure in Lebanon, Syria should not miss the chance to count Aoun as a friend, Safa said.
"It”s a golden opportunity for them to grab a major Christian ally," he said. "It comes at a time when Syria is really building its regained influence in Lebanon. They need friends. It”s an opportunity they shouldn”t miss."