Michel Aoun, or the making of a footnote

 

We don’t know about you, but this past week, when Gebran Bassil, son-in-law to Michel Aoun, began analyzing American politics on a local television show, we listened. We heard young Gebran tell us that Barack Obama’s victory in the Iowa primary represented the beginning of a big change in attitude in the United States, which would have repercussions for US policy in Lebanon. His point was that the Bush years were over and with them the influence of an administration that doesn’t like Aoun.

 

But then we wondered what that all meant in New Hampshire, where Obama lost to Hillary Clinton and a substantial number of independent voters gave John McCain a victory in the Republican primary, even though he said he would be willing to leave US troops in Iraq for 100 years. What major change in US attitudes? Could it be that Gebran didn’t know what he was talking about? Could it be that in their rigid certitudes, the men of Rabieh, Michel and Gebran, are invariably off the mark?

 

In fact, that’s precisely what we’re seeing today, as Aoun continues to block the election of Michel Sleiman as president. Aoun’s calculation is that the longer the presidency remains vacant, the more Christian anger will rise, and the greater his chance of being elected. Aoun thinks that Christians will rally to his side against the hydra he has defined as the Hariris, the Sunnis in general, the Lebanese Forces, Walid Jumblatt, even the Maronite Patriarch, whom Aoun has turned into an ecclesiastical punching bag. On Wednesday, he again told Patriarch Sfeir that he was “just an ordinary citizen who has the right to express his opinion.”

 

Quite, but we really don’t think Sfeir needs Aoun’s permission; and we would much rather listen to the Patriarch’s opinion than to Aoun’s. However that misses the more significant point that Aoun’s strategy is failing. The Christians are not rallying to his side. Increasingly, they see the General for what he is: the main impediment to the election of a Christian president who will have considerable power. And who is willing to give Michel Sleiman this power? The Hariris, the Sunnis in general, the Lebanese Forces, Walid Jumblatt, and the Maronite Patriarch – those whom Aoun accuses of working against Christian interests.

 

One poll published in the daily Al-Safir showed growing support for Sleiman, with 66% of respondents saying they regarded him as a compromise candidate, against a meager 3% for Aoun. As for Aoun’s popularity, it went down from 27% to 13% between September and December, while Sleiman’s has risen to around 50%. We can’t judge the merits of the poll, and one must always take Lebanese polls with a grain of salt, but it does reflect what we’re seeing around us. 

 

If you need any more indication that the Aounists are in crisis, consider an article in Al-Hayat on January 6. An Aounist source admitted that there was no agreement within the opposition on taking to the streets in protest against the government. Are we surprised? Not at all. The only reason the Aounists and their allies managed to block streets almost exactly one year ago was that there were sympathizers in the army who protected them; and even then by late afternoon the roads in Christian areas had been opened. This time Aoun will find little sympathy among Michel Sleiman’s men.

 

Let’s face it: Aoun becomes history, a footnote, once Sleiman is elected. In the next parliamentary election, Michel al-Murr will be the kingmaker in the Metn, along with Amin Gemayel, and they will almost certainly try to find a modus vivendi with Sleiman. Aoun’s support in the Kesrouan has substantially declined, as Maronites in general are offended by his petulance and ceaseless provocation of the Patriarch. As for Jbeil, where Aoun has more support, that’s Sleiman’s territory (he’s from Amchit, a town in the Jbeil caza), so we can be pretty sure that Aoun won’t do as well there either.

Here’s a prediction. The continuation of the presidential vacuum will only further erode the backing Aoun enjoys, rather than the contrary, as he imagines. Christians aren’t the dopes Aoun treats them as. They can smell a rat, and so can we. Aoun and his own are much better off sticking to peddling idiotic conclusions about American politics, because their sense of Lebanese politics is much too embarrassing to dwell upon.