Kesrouan seen as litmus test of Aoun”s strength
Events since 2005 may have eroded FPM leader”s support
The electoral outcome in Kesrouan will provide a clear litmus test of how much force remains in the so-called tsunami that swept Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) head MP Michel Aoun to a landslide victory there in 2005.
Most observers predict that the June 7 polls will come down to Christian-majority areas such as Kesrouan, and Aoun needs to take the district”s five parliamentary seats to demonstrate that his status as the top Christian vote-magnet has not wavered, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University.
"Kesrouan represents the core of the Maronites," Hanna said, adding that the district includes Bkirki, seat of the Maronite church. "Kesrouan is the compass for the other [Christian-majority] areas. It”s something symbolic. This is the importance of Kesrouan.
"If [Aoun] loses one or two [seats], it”s a loss for him."
Aoun swept Kesrouan with more than 70 percent of the vote in the 2005 elections, but analysts differed as to whether Aoun would be able to rake in all the district”s seats this year.
Hanna said events since the 2005 vote had begun to erode Aoun”s support among voters. Aoun signed a memorandum of understanding with Hizbullah, leader of the March 8 political camp, after he and March 14 parties could not agree on bringing Aoun into the government, and this partnership is costing Aoun the backing of some Christian voters, Hanna added.
In addition, the Maronite church has not looked fondly on Aoun”s recent moves, such as his triumphant December 2008 trip to newfound ally Syria, against which Aoun had led an abortive war of liberation at the end of the 1975-90 Civil War, said Hanna, who fought alongside Aoun in that campaign. The Council of Maronite Bishops, chaired by Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, famously came out in 2000 against the Syrian presence in Lebanon, some five years before Damascus” troops withdrew from Lebanon.
"I can assure you that the patriarchy is not with Aoun”s choices as far as strategy," Hanna said. "Michel Aoun as a person still has more than 50 percent [voter support in Kesrouan], but not 60 percent or 70 percent.
"Michel Aoun has reached the apex. The only way for him to go is down."
Aoun”s missteps could wind up allowing March 14 candidates to snag one or two of the district”s seats in Parliament, said Hilal Khashan, head of the department of political studies and public administration at the American University of Beirut.
"It is clear that Michel Aoun will not be the master of the elections of the Kesrouan," Khashan said. "He will be the number-one [vote-getter]. But he will not be able to carry a ticket. There are very serious cracks for Aoun in Kesrouan."
Taking a different perspective, Fadia Kiwan, director of the school of political science at St. Joseph University, said Aoun”s coattails would overwhelm March 14 competitors, and at most March 14 could hope to earn one seat in Kesrouan.
"March 14 does not feel confident in forming its list in Kesrouan," she said.
However, the citizens” frame of mind has changed since 2005, when Aoun returned to Lebanon after 14 years of exile in France, and in June voters will make choices based on individual candidates running and not solely on affinity for the FPM chief, Kiwan said. "The mood is much more rational this time," she said. Aoun and his allies "are not as strong as they were in the 2005 elections, but they are still dominating."
Against that backdrop, the declared candidacies of two local favorites – former MP Mansour al-Bon and former Foreign Minister Fares Boueiz – could foil Aoun”s efforts to sweep Kesrouan, the analysts said.
"These are heavy-caliber candidates," Khashan said. "These people would not run unless they knew they would win. They know the mood in Kesrouan is not pro-Hizbullah."
For his part, Boueiz has yet to announce whether he will align himself with March 8 or March 14, and questions linger about whether Boueiz, who has long had good relations with Syria, will throw in his lot with Aoun, Hanna said.
"If he goes with Aoun, Aoun wants total, undisputed loyalty – Boueiz is not like this," Hanna said, adding that Boueiz and Bon each have a "good chance" of winning seats. "[Boueiz] has his own personality. He thinks he has his own status."
The March 14-allied Bon, meanwhile, represents the "main threat" to Aoun”s hegemony in Kesrouan, said Safa. Kiwan added Bon was the only candidate who could deny Aoun all five Kesrouan deputies.
Bon has earned voter support in Kesrouan by giving residents there assistance with quotidian problems, and his healthy chances in the elections show that politics has returned "back to reality," to its traditional tribal dynamic, Hanna said. The euphoria after the Syrian withdrawal and Aoun”s return in 2005 has faded, and this year the deeply rooted traditions of family and clan allegiances and favors rendered will do much to determine how citizens vote, Hanna added.
Bon is "a service-driven man," Hanna said. "He has a constituency. In Lebanon it”s about services, it”s about helping people from day to day."
Aoun”s FPM has lacked the presence on the ground in Kesrouan that Bon and Boueiz had, Hanna said. As a result, Aoun is having trouble fielding a slate of candidates – and not just in Kesrouan – faced with the dilemma of running recognizable FPM names outside their home districts or tabbing younger FPM cadres who have toiled for the party since 2005 and are known locally but new to national politics, he added.
The Kesrouan candidacy of Carlos Edde, head of the Lebanese Bloc and a March 14 stalwart, has also altered the equation, even though the analysts gave him little chance for success. Edde does not have a constituency in Kesrouan, but it appears March 14 has sent Edde into a losing battle in Kesrouan because Edde”s untainted reputation and strong campaign could swing a few votes away from Aoun, Hanna and Safa said.
"Carlos Edde cannot make it in Jbeil or Kesrouan, but he”s putting up a fight just to make sure that Aoun doesn”t win uncontested," Safa said.
With almost two months to go before the June 7 polls, the rival political factions have yet to present their final lists of candidates, and Aoun”s chances to carry all of Kesrouan”s seats might still rest on coalitions yet to arise or the mood of the electorate in the hours leading up to the vote, Hanna said.