Government void can impact stability, security – analysts
‘The absence of a cabinet opens Lebanon to all possibilities’
With still no government almost five months after general elections, Lebanon’s political stability and security could soon suffer more repercussions, analysts say. The power vacuum was highlighted late on Tuesday when a rocket fired from Lebanon slammed into northern Israel and the Jewish state retaliated with an artillery barrage.
The Israeli Army saw the attack as “serious,” a spokeswoman said, “and considers that responsibility for it falls on the Lebanese government.”
The irony is that Lebanon technically does not have a government. It has been five months since the polls, when voters opted for a coalition of parties led by Western- and Saudi-backed Saad Hariri, son of former Premier Rafik Hariri, assassinated four years ago.
Since late June, the prime minister-designate has failed to form a government by bridging differences between his own bloc and the opposition, led by Syrian- and Iranian-backed Shiite party Hizbullah.
“This is not normal,” said Emile Khoury, a columnist with pro-Hariri daily An-Nahar.
“The absence of a government opens Lebanon to all possibilities, including security risks,” he told AFP.
On Wednesday morning, the Lebanese Army discovered four more rockets, primed and ready to be fired at Israel from the border village of Hula, the origin of the previous day’s attack.
No one has claimed responsibility for Tuesday attack, the fourth this year, but Israel’s eyes are bound to be on Hizbullah, with which it fought a 34-day war in 2006 that was disastrous for Lebanon.
The feud between Israel and Hizbullah, which led a guerrilla campaign that dislodged the Israeli troops from their occupation in southern Lebanon in 2000, is a key element in the country’s continuing instability.
But there are also domestic tensions, which brought Lebanon to the brink of a new civil war two years ago and which Khoury said could boil over again.
The “armed Shiite alliance,” or Hizbullah and its ally Amal, “can use the threat of a new May 7 at any time,” Khoury said.
A political crisis erupted in 2006 when all Shiite cabinet ministers resigned. It climaxed on May 7, 2008, when more than 100 people were killed in sectarian fighting in the worst bloodshed since Lebanon’s 1975-90 Civil War.
A Qatari-brokered deal led to the formation of a national unity government in which Hizbullah and its allies had veto power over key decisions.
But that cabinet has not met since the June 7 election. It is now just an acting government and cannot make administrative appointments or decisions.
“The obstacles to government formation are internal,” said Jean Aziz, a political analyst for daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to the Hizbullah-led opposition. “It is a battle over political weight, quotas and influence in the country.”
The Hizbullah-led alliance accuses the majority of trying to rule unilaterally, while the Hariri camp slams the opposition for trying to impose its conditions on the majority.
But both Aziz and Khoury said external factors also weighed in heavily.
“Lebanon has become a dumping ground for the region’s problems,” Khoury said.
Aziz said: “Local rivals, specifically the majority represented by Hariri, and the armed spine of the opposition, or Hizbullah, represent regional powers, powers that are now open to dialogue.”
Syria and Saudi Arabia recently buried the hatchet over Lebanon and have jointly called for the formation of a cabinet.
Syria was the powerbroker in neighboring Lebanon for nearly 30 years until the 2005 murder of the elder Hariri, who was close to the Saudi monarchy.
According to Khoury, Lebanon is a key negotiating tool for Saudi Arabia, Syria and its ally Iran in recently launched talks.
“Iran is using Lebanon as a lever in its nuclear dossier, Syria in its problems with the international community and Saudi Arabia in its problem with the Huthis in Yemen.”