Before the 2009 elections Hezbullah secretary general Hasan Nasrallah kept speculating over and over that his party and its allies will gain majority of parliament, but one statement from former Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Botros Sfeir made sure that the majority stays with the 14th of March coalition, he made it clear that if the 8th of March coalition was to win, the country would face huge danger.
Clearly Hezbullah disagrees with this statement, because if these talks go viral, negative public reactions would be very damaging. They worry from internal reactions, since on the international level, Iran is the only country interfering with Lebanon.
Surprisingly, this is the first time Hezbullah admits that partitions are not only affecting the 14th of March, but also the 8th, declaring that a strategic alliance is being formed between the Free Patriotic Movement and the Future Movement. All this is to justify that Hezbullah is not hoping for majority in parliament yet with all humbleness is guaranteeing 27 seats out of 27 independently and third of the parliament seats as a coalition.
After a deeper reading of Hezbullah’s humbleness, we see this as a clear propaganda move, trying to show dominance over the Shia sect, on the other hand and according the their simple calculations if the 8th of March coalition excluding the Free Patriotic Movement gain 17 seats as a minimum, as well as their guaranteed 27 seats, they would total a 44 seat minimum.
A more accurate reading of these numbers would clearly show the exaggeration of their allies speculated wins, but in fact reality would not guarantee more than 11 seats instead of 17 meaning that they will not be able to secure the needed Third of parliament.
On the other hand, a minimum of 50 seats are guaranteed for the 14th of march coalition, while the majority of parliament will go to those who have promising plans.
We can confirm that neither Two Thirds of Parliament will be with Hezbullah, nor the majority, not even the third. All talks about the new Elections law being in favor of Hezbullah is absolute fantasy, even hezbulla is settling for third of the parliament after promoting that they guarantee two thirds. Elections will show show that even one third will be a challenge for them.